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Article|30 Apr 2025|OPEN
Optimization and application of genome prediction model in rapeseed: flowering time, yield components, and oil content as examples 
Wenkai Yu1 ,† , Xinao Wang1,2 ,† , Hui Wang1 , Wenxiang Wang1 , Hongtao Cheng1 , Desheng Mei1 , Lixi Jiang3 and Qiong Hu1 , , Jia Liu,1 ,
1Key Laboratory for Biology and Genetic Improvement of Oil Crops, Oil Crops Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Xudong 2nd Road 2#, Wuhan 430062, China
2Shenzhen Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, No. 7 Pengfei Road, Longgang District, Shenzhen 518100, China
3nstitute of Crop Science, Zhejiang University, 866 Yuhangtang Road, Hangzhou 310058, China
*Corresponding author. E-mail: huqiong01@caas.cn,liujia02@caas.cn
Both authors contributed equally to the study.

Horticulture Research 12,
Article number: uhaf115 (2025)
doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/hr/uhaf115
Views: 1571

Received: 13 Feb 2025
Accepted: 22 Apr 2025
Published online: 30 Apr 2025

Abstract

Rapeseed is the second largest oilseed crop in the world with short domestication and breeding history. This study developed a batch of genomic prediction models for flowering time (FT), oil content, and yield components in rapeseed. Using worldwide 404 breeding lines, the optimal prediction model for FT and five quality and yield traits was established by comparison with efficient traditional models and machine learning (ML) models. The results indicate that quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and significant variations identified by genome-wide association study (GWAS) can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of complex traits, achieving over 90% accuracy in predicting FT and thousand grain weight. The Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP) and Bayes–Lasso models provided the most accurate prediction overall, while ML models such as GBDT (Gradient-Boosting Decision Trees) exhibited strong predictive performance. Our study provides genome selection solution for the high prediction accuracy and selection of complex traits in rapeseed breeding. The use of a diverse panel of 404 worldwide lines ensures that the findings are broadly applicable across different rapeseed breeding programs.